Natural Gas & Electricity Markets

Natural Gas

• EIA reported withdrawals of 338 Bcf from storage for the week ending 2/19.
• That withdrawal was below expectations, but well above year-ago withdrawal of 145 Bcf and the 5-year average of 120 Bcf.
• Gas volumes were 298 Bcf less than last year at this time and 161 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,104 Bcf. That being said, at 1,943 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
• Prompt month prices had risen above $3.00 / MMBtu, but have since receded and are now in the $2.80 range.
• The natural gas rig count is at 91, up from the previously reported 90.
• There are 4 weeks left in the standard withdrawal season.

• Forward power prices were generally neutral. Pricing moved up an average of 0.08% week-over-week in most areas. Regions that are more heavily dependent on natural gas-fired generation experienced the largest increases, ranging from 1.5%-1.8%.
• The situation in ERCOT was obviously quite different. The unprecedented storm strained the grid and blackouts were rampant. Demand spiked (up to 69,150 MW) and generation was inadequate as the result of the storm.
• Prices spiked up to $9,000 / kWh fopr a period of time.
• Mid-Atlantic and Great Lakes regions were largely unchanged.

• The polar vortex of 2021 was severe but has largely exited north. Temperatures in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and other states severely affected by energy outages are largely above normal to start the week.
• Temperatures in the ERCOT areas are returning to normal. The recovery in that region is in process.
• Seasonal latter-winter temperatures are expected in The Midwest, Mid Atlantic, and the Northeast
• A warmer pattern is expected for the second half of March