Natural Gas & Electricity Markets

Natural Gas

• Rig counts have held steady, with a minor rise for 44% for oil-directed rigs.
• U.S. natural gas production is currently over 91 Bcf per day, largely recovered from the mid-February polar vortex.
• The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a withdrawal of 11 Bcf for the week ending March 12th, coming in below expectations of a draw of 17 Bcf
• Gas storage is at 1,782 Bcf, just below the five-year historical range.
• Underground inventories stand at 1,782 Bcf, representing a 12.4% deficit to last year and a 4.6% deficit to the five-year average.
• Prompt month prices are down, straddling the $2.500/ MMBtu line.
• Exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) remain strong in March.

• On a national basis, Calendar Year 2022 forwards are up slightly. The remainder of the forwards through 2025 are in the area of 0.5% higher.
• In the ComEd region power forwards were up but not dramatically as a result of the February Polar Vortex. That being said, the rise in day-ahead pricing was significant. March day-ahead prices in ComEd are currently 47% lower than this past February, but 35% higher than last year in March.
• MISO continues to move toward a new capacity model. There appears to be support for a single, seasonal annual auction, currently being reviewed unde the ACAP monker.
• The fallout from February's storm is continuing in Texas. A number of petitions have been filed to the Texas PUC to reconsider the February order to price the electricity at the maximum $9,000 / MWh. No immediate relief is apparent at this time.

• Seasonal, latter-winter temperatures are expected in the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast in March.
• The last week of March is expected to be warmer than normal in the Eastern and Central U.S., with below normal precipitation.
• The initial outlook for April is a bit warmer than normal across the country.