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Natural Gas & Electricity Markets

Natural Gas

As of Mid-June —
  • Natural gas fundamentals drivers are mostly bullish. Storage inventories are below the five-year average and well below last year. Expectations of warmer than normal summer weather and the on-going drought in the West will likely be supportive of power generation demand – mitigating headwinds from renewable additions and fuel switching due to stronger gas prices.
  • U.S. natural gas production is currently holding around 90.1 Bcf per day. 
  • Rig counts are are up significantly from last year.
  • For the week ending June 11, 2021, storage inventories stood at 2,427 Bcf. Inventories are 126 Bcf below the five-year average and 453 Bcf below last year.
  • LNG (liquid natural gas) exports have softened, but are still 5.5 Bcf/day ahead of June 2020.
  • Most region forward curves are showing a rise in electricity prices over the last several months. Prices can be expected to remain elevated somewhat throughout the summer.
  • Temperatures in the Midwest had reached the high 80s and 90s, but have since moderated. The Midwest is expected to end June with very little rain.
  • The West is expected to have continuous heat and drought conditions
  • Much of the East is in a cooling trend.
  • The Southeastern region is expected to have above normal rainfall.

Results For the PJM 2022 / 2023 Base Residual Auction
  • After a long posponement, pending final decisions on the Minimum Offer Price Requirements (MOPR) ruling, PJM capacity auctions have resumed.
  • The good news is that for the period beyond June 2022, capacity rates will fall. Thus the auction results will have a significant impact on overall electricity prices.
  • Auction pricing went from $140/MW-day (per the last auction in 2018) down to $50/MW-day.
  • The procured reserve margin was nearly at a robust 20%, 5.4% ahead of the target.
  • Auctions had been postponed since 2019, and the next one is scheduled in December for the 2023/2024 delivery year.
  • Advance auctions are typically conducted 3 years in advance of a delivery period.
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Prospect Resources Inc. (PRI) is a firm that specializes in managing energy procurement (gas and electricity) for medium and large commercial and industrial clients.

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